Hurricane Isaias 8 AM Update

- The National Hurricane Center advisory is below, but I think there is an increasing chance that it may track a little farther west than the black line in the 1st image. There has been a westward shift in the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and HWRF-Parallel. Always pay attention to the official NHC forecast, but the implications for a westward shift would be more impact for the east coast of Florida, a potential landfall near the SC/NC border, more time over land before getting to or near Long Island. Let's see what the NHC shows in their 11 AM update. I will post the new 06Z Euro ensembles when they come out around 9:30 AM. From the NHC: At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was locat

Update on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and Long Island Weather

- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine still does not have a closed center of circulation, but it's expected to do so later today and will likely be classified Tropical Storm Isaias by 5 PM. Despite not being a tropical system, it still has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and it has very deep convection, as shown in the 2nd image. Since the center will likely have formed farther southwest than originally anticipated, the center will pass south of Puerto Rico and then over Hispaniola, with its mountainous terrain. The NHC is forecasting the maximum sustained winds to get up to 60 mph before landfall in Hispaniola, which will weaken it. Some re-intensification is then likely before it approaches

Potential East Coast Tropical Threat in Early August

Here are the new Euro ensembles (1st image) and UKMET ensembles (2nd image) for Invest 92L. This continues the general trend towards a stronger storm that develops sooner, which would gain more latitude, thus increasing the chance of an east coast threat. This is also increases the chance that it could stay off the east coast. However, it's still much too early to tell.

Long Island Forecast and Trouble Looms in the Tropics

- Tropics: There is an increased probability of tropical development for the 2 systems in the Atlantic (see 1st image); the system near Cuba has a 30% chance when it gets into the Gulf and the system out in the Atlantic has a 40% chance. The next name on the list is Gonzalo. Beyond that though, there will be another system that some of the Euro ensembles eventually develop into a hurricane as it heads in the general direction of the United States at the end of the month. I will continue to update. Long Island forecast: - Today: Mostly sunny and hot, but less humid by later this morning and into the afternoon. Highs mostly in the low 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. - Tomorr

Projected High Temperatures

Here are the projected high temperatures for the next 4 days from the National Weather Service. The heat index will be close to 100 degrees tomorrow and Monday on Long Island.

Hot Weekend!

Just a quick post to test out the new blog version and show the projected high temperatures for Sunday from the National Weather Service. Highs could reach the mid 90's on Long Island in northern Nassau. Saturday and Monday will be hot as well with highs mostly in the low 90's. With the humidity, it will feel even hotter! Image from

Cooler Weather Before the Heat Arrives on Long Island

See the "My Personal Weatherman" Facebook page for frequent updates. Cooler weather before the heat arrives: - Quick overview for Long Island with more details below: Mostly sunny today and tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms at times Friday into late Friday night, and then mostly sunny and hot for the weekend. - Today: Mostly sunny with highs mostly around 80 degrees with moderate humidity levels. The breeze will be mostly out of the ENE this morning at 5 to 10 mph and then out of the ESE at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. - Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the upper 70's with moderate humidity levels. The breeze will be mostly out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph in the mornin

Quick Update on Potential Storm For Long Island

See the "My Personal Weatherman" Facebook page for frequent updates. *Quick update on the storm, which may become Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Fay* - The brand-new 06Z Euro run didn't disappoint. It has the storm hug the NJ coast and cross Long Island with torrential rain at times. - It's showing rainfall potential of 2 to 4 inches on Long Island. - Wind gust potential is 25 to 40 mph. - The Euro is slower than most of the other models though. It has some lighter rain on Friday morning into afternoon, but it has the heavy rain for Friday night into Saturday morning. So, there is still uncertainty in the timing of the heavy rain. There is still some track uncertainty as well.

Forecast for Long Island

See the "My Personal Weatherman" Facebook page for frequent updates. - Today: Sunny with highs mostly in the upper 80's, but some 90 degree readings for the northern and western areas and cooler for the south shore and east end. The humidity will be fairly low to moderate. There is only a very slight chance of a widely scattered passing shower or storm in the late afternoon. - Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to party cloudy in the morning into early afternoon, and then there is a pretty good chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon into the night with the backdoor cold front coming down from the north (moving generally from NE to SW). Highs will mostly be in the mid to upper 80's,

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