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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

11 AM Update on Laura and Future Marco With Some Subtle Shifts:

- Both are still projected to reach hurricane status, and you can see the forecast cones for each have been adjusted slightly. The new farther south center of Laura caused the southward and westward shift.

- Keep in mind that there is still uncertainty in the track and strength of each due to the following: their current poorly organized tropical structure, how much land interaction occurs, and how each storm influences the other when they are both in the Gulf of Mexico.

- Here are some of the projected rainfall estimates from Laura: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the

southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

- Here are the forecast wind speeds and key messages for Laura:

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

- Here are the forecast wind speeds and key messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen (future Marco):

INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.

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