15-Day Euro Ensembles Showing Hurricane Potential
The 15-day Euro ensembles map is obviously a little messier, but it gives the general idea of an uptick in activity with a potential landfalling hurricane in the United States later this month.
- Keep in mind, there are 50 Euro ensemble members.
- The colors represent the intensity; the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. When you start seeing red, orange, and pink showing up on the map, it should be taken seriously.
- The Euro ensembles vary not only the initial conditions, but also the model physics as well to show a range of possible outcomes.
- While we are generally better at predicting track than intensity, track errors become quite large when you go beyond 6 or 7 days.