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15-Day Euro Ensembles Showing Hurricane Potential

The 15-day Euro ensembles map is obviously a little messier, but it gives the general idea of an uptick in activity with a potential landfalling hurricane in the United States later this month.


- Keep in mind, there are 50 Euro ensemble members.

- The colors represent the intensity; the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. When you start seeing red, orange, and pink showing up on the map, it should be taken seriously.

- The Euro ensembles vary not only the initial conditions, but also the model physics as well to show a range of possible outcomes.

- While we are generally better at predicting track than intensity, track errors become quite large when you go beyond 6 or 7 days.

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