My Personal Weatherman™
2 PM Update on Laura and Future Marco
- The strength of each hasn't changed since the 11 AM advisory. The 5 PM advisory will be important to see. I probably won't be able to post an update until around 8:30 or so tonight. I was hoping to add the latest upgraded GFS ensembles and early 18Z track guidance in this post, but they aren't out yet.
- The hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) continue to show impressive strengthening of each storm, but that is likely overdone, especially what the HWRF is showing.
- It does seem like there is potential for Laura to make landfall farther west along the Gulf coast than what the NHC is presently showing. The latest GFS ensembles, Euro ensembles, HWRF, and HMON are all showing it.
From the National Hurricane Center:
- On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
- For TD14 (future Marco): Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.