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Potential for Heavy Rain and the Tropical System in the Atlantic Strengthens

Today will be a mostly cloudy day on Long Island with temperatures in the upper 70's. Some showers are possible later this afternoon, but the bulk of the rain looks to move in tonight into mid to late morning tomorrow. There is the potential for heavy rain with flooding! Some models are showing the heavy rain to be to our north from northern NJ into CT, but the 3-km NAM model is actually showing extreme rainfall amounts for parts of Long Island, with 3 to 5 inch amounts! This image shows the rainfall amounts expected from the 12-km NAM model:

Image from

After the rain ends Friday morning, it should be mostly dry until Saturday late morning with just a small chance of a stray shower during that time period. However, there is a better chance of a shower or potentially strong thunderstorm from around 11 AM until 5 PM on Saturday. After that, Sunday and Monday should be really nice, but it's possible that showers approach the region on Tuesday.

Regarding the tropics, the storm in the Atlantic has strengthened, and it's now classified as a Tropical Depression. However, dry air from the Sahara and increasing vertical shear should weaken, or at least prevent further strengthening, over the next several days. Most of the major models show this storm to dissipate in 3 to 5 days to just a weak tropical wave. Here is the official National Hurricane Forecast map:

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