Heavy Rain to the North and South of Long Island Right Now. Where is it Heading?
As of 6 AM Friday, there is a huge batch of heavy rain passing south of Long Island, which may skim eastern Suffolk. There is also an area of heavy rain in northwest New Jersey, and that area of heavy rain should pass north of Long Island. Overall, it looks like the GFS model from yesterday was on the right path with the heavy flooding rain mostly staying north of Long Island. However, an area of heavy rain should swing through Long Island from around 11 AM to 1 PM for Nassau and between 1 PM and 3 PM for Suffolk. Here are the expected rainfall totals according to the short-range High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model:
Image from tropicaltidbits.com
As you can see from the map, parts of northern Long Island may get close to 2 inches of rain, but for the most part, I'm expecting a general 1 inch rainfall for most of Long Island. There may also be a couple of scattered showers overnight into Saturday morning. For the most part, Saturday looks to be warm and mostly sunny in the afternoon, but there is a 20% chance of a passing stray shower or thunderstorm. Once again, the weather looks great for Sunday and Monday, but there will be some showers Tuesday or Tuesday night. Wednesday may be fine, but we have to watch for some unsettled weather late next week.
Regarding the Tropical Depression in the Atlantic, it is still expected to dissipate within the next 3 or 4 days; however, the UKMET model is giving the storm a chance to regenerate once it gets north of the Bahamas and closer to Florida, so it bears watching.