Update on the GFS Hurricane and Timing the Rain This Week
The GFS model had been remarkably consistent in showing the formation of a hurricane in the Caribbean early next week, while none of the other models were picking up on it. Now, the GFS, for two runs in a row, has finally caved in to the other models and dropped the hurricane! So, at this time, there doesn't appear to be any chance of it happening.
For Long Island, today will be warm and humid with temps in the mid 80's. There is a chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While they will be fairly scattered, the chances of getting rain will be greater than 50%, and the possibility of hail and strong gusty winds cannot be ruled out.
There is a good chance of some showers Wednesday evening as well, and Thursday should be hot and humid. The best chance of widespread showers is from late Thursday night into late Friday night. Overall, the weekend looks pretty good at this time, but a stray shower each day cannot be ruled out.
This image shows the total rainfall expected through Saturday morning, and it's showing amounts from 1.5 to 2 inches for Long Island.
Image from tropicaltidbits.com