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  • My Personal Weatherman™

Where Will the Axis of the Heavy Rain be Overnight?

The models are split on whether the moderate to heavy rain overnight will be focused over central NJ or over Long Island. The NAM has the heavier rain for Long Island, but the GFS, RGEM, and HRRR models all have it just south of Long Island, with the main focus over central NJ. I am leaning toward the heavier rain being just south of Long Island. Either way, most of the rain should be between 8 PM and 4 AM. Most of Sunday looks to be dry with showers possibly at night.

This image is from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model showing the heavy rain focused over central NJ:

Image from

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