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Rapidly Intensifying Harvey to Stall Over Texas Coast Leading to Catastrophic Flooding, and an Updat


The overnight runs of the computer models have done nothing to lessen the potential for catastrophic flooding over southeast Texas. In fact, Harvey is undergoing rapid intensification, and it now has the potential to strike Texas as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph wind gusts. The latest trend seems to have the storm stall not long after moving inland, which would lead to a slower weakening of the storm since it will still be getting moisture from the very warm Gulf of Mexico. It also seems that landfall may now be south of Corpus Christi, Texas. The main dilemma is exactly which direction does Harvey move after it stalls. Some models move it slightly east and back over water, such as the Euro model, which re-strengthens it before striking Louisiana. Other models take it slightly southwest and weaken it.

It appears that the coastline of Texas will experience 20 to 30 inch rain amounts, with locally higher amounts closer to 40 inches being within the realm of possibility.

The GFS model run from yesterday evening was showing potential for a Tropical Storm to brush Long Island next week. The overnight run moved the system further offshore. It still bears watching, as the Canadian model brings the storm straight up the coast. I may update as the new GFS run will be coming in within the hour.

(EDIT: New GFS run coming out now is showing Harvey to make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds!!)

See the following images for more details:

This image is from the GFS overnight run, and it's showing landfall as an intense Category 2 or possibly Category 3 hurricane between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com

The following image shows the widespread areas of 15 to 30 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com

The following image is from the Canadian model, and it's showing Hurricane Irma moving up the coast next Monday night. However, the GFS moves the system out to sea, and the GFS is a more reliable model than the Canadian, but it bears watching:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com


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