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Hurricane Irma Model Tracks Shift!


The GFS model last night started trending east with the location of the expected northward turn close to Florida and had it staying just offshore of Miami and heading north into South Carolina. Now, the overnight run of the Euro has shown the same thing! Most of the ensembles have shifted as well, but there are still plenty of ensemble members that show a track over the west coast of Florida, so this new track is not set in stone yet, and it will probably continue to shift one way or another over the next couple of days.

In the meantime, the storm continues as an historically intense Category 5 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 914 mb and maximum sustained winds of 185 mph with gusts to 220 mph. I would not be surprised to see slight weakening today, but even so, it is expected to maintain Category 5 status for the next few days.

Everyone in Florida should listen to their local authorities and still plan to take a direct hit from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. However, preparations should also be made from Coastal Georgia up to North Carolina as well, as the threat seems to have increased, especially for South Carolina.

These are the GFS ensembles from the overnight run:

Image from tropicaltidbits.com

These are the Euro ensembles from the overnight run:


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