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Major Shift in Projected Track of Hurricane Jose! An East Coast Landfall is Still Possible.


There has been a major shift in the computer model guidance on the future track of Hurricane Jose. The afternoon runs yesterday of both the Euro and GFS brought Hurricane Jose harmlessly out to sea. However, the evening run of the GFS yesterday trended back closer to the coast, and the overnight run actually has the system block from heading out to sea by a stronger-than-anticipated ridge of high pressure, so the system stalls and then heads back right into the coast around Virginia. The overnight Euro has the system head farther offshore, but then it also shows a blocking and has the storm move back on a path towards the Delaware/Maryland region at the 240 hour mark, which is how long the Euro model runs.

Regarding the strength of Hurricane Jose. It is currently a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds, as wind shear has weakened it. Slight weakening is forecast for the next 2 or 3 days, but it's projected to gain some strength from an upper level trough that may help it strengthen from baroclinic processes.

The following image is from the Euro, and it shows Hurricane Jose heading WEST directly for the mid-Atlantic coast as of 8 PM on September 22nd:


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