Major Update on Dorian, Erin, and Long Island
See the "My Personal Weatherman" Facebook page for frequent updates.
- As I predicted last night, the National Hurricane Center is now calling for a 100 mph hurricane, and they said "This forecast, however, is still on the lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the time it nears the southeast U.S." - The National Hurricane Center has also shifted their forecast cone farther north. - Tropical Dorian has strengthened with winds of 60 mph now and developed a partial eyewall and the pressure is down to 1003 mb, and it will affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today with tropical storm conditions, and now all of the models are basically showing a much stronger hurricane approaching Florida or possibly even the GA to NC coast. A Category 3 hurricane is possible, but nothing can be ruled out at this time. - The Euro shows a nightmare scenario where it cross central Florida and then hooks back up and also affect the Carolina coastline. - The Euro ensembles show that anywhere from southern Florida to Cape Hatteras needs to keep an eye on Dorian. - The UKMET seems to slow the hurricane down drastically near the northern Bahamas before getting to southern to central Florida. The GFS takes the hurricane more north and hugs the coast of North Carolina. - The HWRF continues to show a Category 3 hurricane heading towards northern Florida. - Early 06z model guidance is hinting at a more northerly track towards northern Florida or possibly north of that. - Regarding Long Island (see 2nd image), rainfall from moisture from Tropical Storm Erin is already affecting the south fork. Rain, heavy a times, for today into this evening as a cold front also approaches from the west. The highest rainfall totals will be from eastern Long Island into eastern MA, and some areas in MA could get 2 to 4 inches of rain. - For Long Island, nice weather tomorrow into Sunday, and some showers may approach for Sunday night into Labor Day. - I will have many more updates today and tonight on the Facebook page.