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Update on the Potential Weekend Storm for Long Island and New England


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- The models continue to be divided. The GFS, UKMET, and ICON are closer to the coast, while the Euro and Canadian are mostly offshore. The Euro ensembles are showing that the best chance of snow is for central New England away from the coast and into Maine. For Long Island, the odds favor mostly rain, and the timing could be from late morning or early afternoon Saturday into Saturday night. None of the Euro ensembles are showing more than 6 inches of snow anymore on Long Island for this weekend. - The National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-state area explains the reasoning behind the complexity: "For days now, the global guidance has been bouncing around with the intensity and track of a coastal low that develops off the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. Multiple streams within the southern branch itself and complex interaction between embedded shortwaves are producing a variety of solutions. Further compacting this interaction, is additional Pacific shortwave energy moving into western Canada today. Overall though, the placement of the upper trough over the east this weekend is not too dissimilar amongst the guidance. The operational GFS is the deepest of the operational members and tracks the low just inside the 40N/70W benchmark on Saturday. The GEFS mean (GFS ensemble mean) is farther offshore like GGEM (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro), both of which also have a weaker wave passing to the south and east Friday night before the main low. For the time, have a low chance for rain or snow along the coast Friday night and again with the main low Saturday into Saturday night. Another important fact here is the air mass is only marginally cold and the exact track will be critical in precipitation type. Even the GFS track, which is often favorable for snow at the coast, is supporting mainly rain at the onset with a transition to snow at the end. Bottom line, it is much too early to be specific with any details at this time. Perhaps, as some of the Pacific energy moves onshore today, we will begin to get more consensus in the guidance." The following image shows the probability of greater than 3 inches of snow through 7 AM Monday from the Euro ensembles:


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