My Personal Weatherman™
3:30 AM update with snow/wind maps with Euro showing L.I. snow with ensembles southward trend:
- The Euro continues to show some snow/mix on Long Island on Tuesday into Tuesday evening, especially in Nassau. The Euro ensembles snowfall has trended southward 4 runs in a row, and even though it's a 10:1 ratio and amounts wouldn't be that high, the ensemble mean for Long Island is now 6 inches in northern Nassau and 5 inches for most of Long Island with 4 inches around Montauk. Other models and the National Weather Service are less bullish on Long Island snow. If it occurs, it would be a wet snow with temps above freezing and most would occur during the daytime on Tuesday with snow showers for Tuesday evening.
- Also, wind gusts up to hurricane-force will be possible for southeastern MA and maybe 55 mph by Montauk.
Here are the snow maps from the Euro (dynamic snow ratio), GFS (dynamic snow ratio), RGEM, Euro ensemble mean, and Model Blend. Below that is the Model Blend precipitation map, and then at the bottom are the max gusts from the NWS and Euro. The Euro is in knots and is likely a little overdone.