40%

Now we're up to a 40% chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean within the next 5 days. From the National Hurricane Center:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.