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A bit ominous-looking for the eastern Caribbean, but the amount of wind shear will be key:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as the system moves steadily westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



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