A look at the storm for tomorrow night into Saturday, colder air coming, and the LI forecast:
All of the maps for the storm tomorrow night into Saturday are shown below. Regarding rainfall amounts on Long Island, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where the secondary low pressure forms, but it could be right over Long Island. The Euro and NAM are both showing the potential for over 2 inches of rain in Suffolk. The moderate to heavy rain will be mostly from 2 AM to 8 AM on Saturday for Long Island. The official rainfall forecast amounts are generally 0.5 to 1 inch in Nassau and 1 to 1.5 inches in Suffolk. Of course, there will also be plenty of snow in the higher elevations of northern NY state and northwestern New England.
Regarding the storm potential late next week, the models aren't showing much, but the Euro does have light snow make it as far north as Long Island. The GFS and GFS-parallel don't really have a storm for the northeast. The Canadian has some light snow for New England with showers for Long Island. Some of the Euro ensembles still have snow for Long Island though. It's really early, so it won't really come into focus until later this weekend or early next week.
The ensembles from both the GFS and Euro continue to show colder air with below average temperatures for Long Island and the northeast starting next weekend.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Thursday): Cloudy with some partial clearing by late afternoon with light winds and highs in the mid 40's.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows mostly in the low 30's and light winds.
Tomorrow (Friday): Cloudy and a little breezy in the afternoon with highs in the upper 40's.
Tomorrow night (Friday night): A few scattered showers are possible in the evening and then a steadier rain after midnight. There is the potential for moderate to heavy rain in Suffolk. Total rainfall could approach 1.5 inches in Suffolk and close to an inch in Nassau. Temperatures steady in the mid 40's with a wind at 10 to 20 mph mostly from the E to ESE.
Saturday: Rain in the morning tapering off to showers and ending by late morning with partly sunny skies for the afternoon with temperatures steady in the mid 40's. The wind will become WSW in the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. A passing shower is still possible in the late afternoon or evening as the upper level low swings through.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and windy with highs in the low 40's. Wind gusts up to 30 mph from the west in the afternoon.
Monday: Partly cloudy and a little breezy with highs around 40 degrees.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny with highs around 40 degrees.
- 1st to 4th images: Projected snowfall from the NWS (through 7 PM Sat), the NAM (through 1 PM Sat), the Euro (next 10 days), and the Euro ensemble mean (next 15 days), respectively
- 5th to 8th images: Projected precipitation from the Euro (through 7 PM Sat), the NAM (through 1 PM Sat), the NWS (through 7 PM Sat), and the Weather Prediction Center (through 7 AM Sunday), respectively
- 9th to 11th images: Simulated future radar from the NAM for Saturday at 1 AM, 7 AM, and 1 PM, respectively
- 12th and 13rd images: Projected temperatures for the next 15 days for Long Island from the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively
- 14th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend
- 15th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
