Active weather with warmth, thunder, heavy rain, strong winds, wet snow, and cold fronts:
There is a lot going on! The detailed forecast for Long Island is below, but here's an overview: - Very mild ahead of the cold front today with highs in the 70's for NYC and NJ with a wide temperature range for Long Island from the mid to upper 60's in northwestern Nassau to the low 50's out by Montauk. Strong cold front with strong wind gusts over 40 mph and a period of moderate to heavy rain with thunderstorms mostly west and southwest of Long Island with a damaging wind threat there.
- The next system is for Wednesday with some accumulating snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and some rain with some wet snow at times for Long Island and southern New England, but we will be on the northern fringe. I will be updating more on this today and tonight, but the NAM and some of the Euro ensembles are showing some light accumulations even for Long Island. The NWS is going with a chance for a very light coating (4th image). in the morning at the beginning and in the evening at the end.
- Then the strong cold front for Saturday with rain and strong wind gusts with the heavy snow well to the northwest in NY state and New England. Then cold and windy for Sunday behind the storm.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly cloudy and mild with some filtered sunshine at times with a slight chance of a light passing morning shower and becoming windy in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the mid 60's in northwestern Nassau to the low 60's for northwestern Suffolk to the upper 50's for most of Suffolk, but only the low 50's in southeastern Suffolk. Wind out of the S to SSW in the afternoon at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph by late afternoon.
Tonight: Rain, moderate to heavy at times, with a slight chance of thunder between 6 PM and midnight and windy with clearing skies late with lows in the mid to upper 30's. Wind out of the SW before midnight and then WNW after midnight at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Tomorrow: Sunny and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 25 mph.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds with lows in the low to mid 30's in Nassau and upper 20's to low 30's in Suffolk. Wind becoming nearly calm towards and after midnight.
Wednesday: Cloudy with some rain and wet snow likely with highs in the low 40's. Wind mostly out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower with highs in the upper 40's to near 50 degrees. Wind out of the E at 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Cloudy, mild, and windy with showers, moderate to heavy at times and turning colder later in the day and at night. Highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the SSW in the morning into early afternoon and then WNW later in the day at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, windy, and cold with highs around 40 degrees. Wind out of the W at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Severe weather threat for today and tonight from the SPC. It's mostly a thunderstorm with strong wind gust threat with the tornado threat being from central Alabama northward into western Kentucky.
- 3rd image: Projected temperatures at 2 PM today from the HRRR model
- 4th image: Projected snowfall for Wednesday
- 5th image: Map from the NAM for 4 PM Wednesday
- 6th image: Max wind gusts through 1 AM tonight from the HRRR model
- 7th to 9th images: Future radar for tonight at 6 PM, 9 PM, and midnight from the HRRR model
- 10th image: 7-day snow map from the NWS Model Blend
- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend