Afternoon update on the tropics:
The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical development for the 2 systems in the eastern Atlantic to 90% and 80%, respectively. While the odds still favor both systems eventually curving north before getting near the east coast of the United States, keep in mind that projected track errors become quite large beyond 6 or 7 days. As examples, both Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Florence were both originally projected to curve out into the Atlantic.
The following is from the National Hurricane Center:
1. A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Another tropical wave located inland over western Africa is forecast to move offshore on Sunday. Gradual development of this system is then expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center
- 2nd image (video): IR satellite view of the eastern Atlantic
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 4th image: GFS ensembles for the next 16 days