My Personal Weatherman™
Beautiful day and an update on cold front timing, Peter, Rose, and future Sam will be one to watch:
- Another beautiful day today for Long Island with highs in the low to mid 70's. Slowly increasing humidity with some more clouds, and then a chance of some rain each day from Wednesday to Friday as the cold front will be slow to move through, and it may not clear until Friday afternoon/evening. Also, it won't be as chilly as the GFS was showing behind the front, so it will be more like highs in the low 70's and lows in the upper 50's.
- Regarding the late-week period, this is from the NWS NY, covering Long Island and the tri-state area: "An extremely challenging forecast is in play due to a complex upper flow pattern, featuring PAC jet energy diving into the base of an an amplifying longwave trough over the Mississippi Valley during the mid week period. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to be the slower members of the operational global model suite and cut off an upper low in the TN Valley Wed night, while on the GFS this happens much farther to the north and east across the Great Lakes. Additionally, the GFS has been bouncing around the last 48h. It went from a less progressive solution 24h ago, to now a progressive trend over the last 3 cycles. Staying more in line with a consensus model approach, leaning toward the slower ECMWF and Canadian, would support a slower frontal passage Friday into Friday night with the heaviest pre-frontal rains coming late Thursday night into Friday. There also look to be multiple moisture streams from the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with high PWAT. Thus, there is the potential for a period of heavy rainfall, but too much uncertainty at this time to be specific with timing and amounts. Does the best jet dynamics and thermal forcing stay west or go over the area area are some of the questions that should be able to be answered in coming days. Ahead of the main frontal band, there will be a chance of showers on Thursday along with plenty of clouds with a strong onshore flow off the Atlantic."
- Tropical Storm Peter has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, but it's a strongly sheared storm, and it will gradually weaken in the next couple of days. However, it could re-strengthen on approach to Bermuda.
- Tropical Storm Rose is nothing to worry about as it will stay way out in the Atlantic.
- The storm that was once Odette will be moving back over warmer waters, and it could become a tropical storm again in the middle of the Atlantic.
- Invest 98L has been designated, and it will become Tropical Storm Sam and then possibly Hurricane Sam. It will need to be watched as it has the potential to track farther west than the recent storms that have been curving north earlier on.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70's. Wind nearly calm in the morning and then out of the ESE to SE at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear with lows around 60 degrees. Wind out of the ESE to SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny with slowly increasing humidity. Highs in the mid 70's. Wind out of the ESE to SE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. Lows in the low to mid 60's. Wind out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, humid, and becoming breezy with a 60% chance of some light showers at times with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the SSE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and humid with some showers likely at times with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the SE to SSE at 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Rainy and breezy in the morning with a thunderstorm possible with lingering showers in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70's. Wind out of the SSE in the morning and then W to WNW by late afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and less humid with highs in the low to mid 70's.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70's.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 3rd image: Overview of the tropics from the NHC
- 4th image: Official forecast map for Tropical Storm Peter from the NHC
- 5th and 6th images: Projected rainfall through 2 AM Saturday from the WPC
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend