Breaking Developments in the Tropics
Note: Once I officially announce the launch of the app, I will begin to gradually transition to posting more detailed info here on the app, rather than on the FB page. I am generally thinking of doing a gradual phased rolling launch, LOL.
- Also, I haven't activated the text notifications yet.
- Now we have 2 Tropical Depressions, and the race to be named Laura is on. The other will be named Marco.
- Tropical Depression Thirteen is now forecast to be a hurricane, and the track has been shifted slightly northward by the NHC, as I predicted.
- Tropical Depression Fourteen is projected to head over the Yucatan as a strong tropical storm, and then re-strengthen in the Gulf after it weakens over land.
- I will continue to update. See previous posts for more information, and always pay attention to official information from the National Hurricane Center.
Here are the key messages and wind projections for each from the National Hurricane Center:
First, for Tropical Depression Thirteen, which is the one heading towards Florida:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday.
2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.
3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
Now, for Tropical Depression Fourteen:
1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area later today.
2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 15.1N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH