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Breaking Developments Slowly Increase Chances of a Hurricane Landfall in Florida

Breaking developments are concerning for Florida as the new track guidance has shifted north, and more of the models are showing it reaching hurricane status.


- See previous posts for more information, and always pay attention to official information from the National Hurricane Center.

- Based on the latest model data though, I do think the NHC will shift their track a little northward, and they might also forecast it to reach hurricane strength.

- Keep in mind that it will be very slow to intensify over the next 2 or 3 days.

- We still don't know if Invest 97L or Tropical Depression Thirteen will be named first. Laura and Marco are the next 2 names.

- I will continue to update with the latest information.


- The 1st image is the new early 12Z track guidance.

- The 2nd image is the newly upgraded version of the GFS ensembles.

- The 3rd image is the latest GFS run.

- The 4th image is from the 8 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

- 5th and 6th images: HWRF and HMON models for 5 PM Monday. That's not an official forecast, but meant to show that there is the potential for it to strengthen more than the NHC is projecting.








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