Brief update as near-blizzard conditions are possible for a time on Long Island:
See previous post for the complete update. The National Weather Service is mentioning that wind gusts of 60 mph are likely on eastern Long Island at the height of the storm. Near-blizzard conditions will be possible Monday afternoon into early evening before any transition to sleet and then rain begins. The period of heaviest snow looks to be between 2 PM and 6 PM Monday, but we can fine-tune that going forward. The biggest uncertainty is how long do we get snow before the transition begins. If it's 2 hours longer than projected, that could increase snowfall amounts by around 3 inches as snowfall rates at expected to be between 1 and 2 inches per hour at time. The new 06Z Euro and ensembles have generally increased snowfall amounts on Long Island slightly, but now we start looking towards the NAM, RGEM, HREF, and HRRR, which are the higher-resolution models.
- 1st and 2nd images: Projected snowfall through 7 PM Wednesday from the NWS model blend and Euro ensemble mean, respectively
- 3rd and 4th images: Maps from the Euro at 2 PM Monday and NAM (12km) at 4 PM Monday, respectively