Bring it on! The severe storms tomorrow are my pre-birthday gift!
The 1st image is for 5 PM tomorrow from the HRRR model; however, be advised that the NAM is much less bullish on the thunderstorm potential. The 2nd image shows the overall threat, and the 3rd to 5th images show the threat for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail, respectively.
The following is from NWS NY covering Long Island and the Tri-State area:
The main concern for Wednesday will be with potential of severe thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of the region in slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The latest 12z CAMs continue to indicate potential for thunderstorm development along and ahead of a cold front that will be sinking south into the region during the day. There will also be a prefrontal trough ahead of the front, which may serve as a focus along with sea breeze convergence. There however remains uncertainty on the position of the prefrontal trough and how the decaying convective outflow from Tuesday night may impact the overall mesoscale set up. Severe parameters are a bit concerning with a potential elevated mixed layer helping to enhance instability. A general consensus of the 12z CAMs indicates about 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE in an environment of 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. A review of forecast soundings shows some dry air aloft, so this may be a potential negating factor. Sufficient lift from the digging upper trough, and increasing surface convergence, should allow updrafts to sustain themselves especially in the afternoon. The aforementioned dry air may actually enhance the potential of severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. The instability may also be maximized from around the Hudson River corridor on east across Long Island and southern Connecticut with greater potential for heating. This area should serve as a juxtaposition of sea breeze convergence with the pre- frontal trough and cold front. Cells may mature into a broken line or multicell clusters as they move across eastern portions of the area in the middle to late afternoon. The main threats from these storms are damaging wind gusts and hail. There looks to be fair amount of CAPE in the -10 to -30C layer to support potential for hail. Flash flooding does not appear likely given the middle flow regime, but minor urban flooding cannot be ruled out. Morning cloud cover and/or lingering smoke aloft could play a roll in the amount of destabilization. This is something that will have to be watched and could lower the severe weather potential. However, there is a general consensus of the CAMs indicating decent potential for storms to develop around midday to early afternoon and then push eastward through the afternoon with the cold front. Activity should be weakening and moving offshore by early evening.
