Check out the HWRF. Also, the Euro ensembles continue to be a southwestern outlier:

The HWRF is showing Sam as a Cat 3 next Tuesday morning (1st and 2nd image).

Check out the new 06Z Euro ensembles in the 3rd image compared to the latest tracks from various models (4th image). Very strange to see so many Euro ensemble members so much farther southwest. I would favor the ensemble members showing a stronger storm (red lines).