Complex pattern with changes to the forecast with many days of wintry weather coming:
The headline says it all really, but for example, the Euro is showing at least some ice (freezing rain) for Long Island on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Wednesday really looks like the only dry and mostly sunny day. Some of the changes are another system now for Monday with maybe a slight break Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Also, a major change for Long Island is Tuesday may be much less snow now and more of a wintry mix possibly changing to rain. There may actually be more snow now next Thursday than on Tuesday, but even that should change to a wintry mix. To give the general idea, I have included many of the maps below, and for Long Island, some of the details are in the forecast below, but there is less confidence the farther out it goes.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Partly cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 20's. Wind out of the N to NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloud and very cold with lows mostly in the mid to upper teens. Light winds out of the north at 5 to 8 mph.
Tomorrow: Increasing clouds in the morning with a slight chance of light snow or sleet by mid to late afternoon. Highs around 30 to 31 degrees.
Tomorrow night: Scattered light snow and/or sleet in the evening with possibly a coating to 1/4 inch of snow before becoming mostly sleet and then freezing rain after midnight. Icy conditions are likely overnight. Temperatures nearly steady around 30 degrees and staying below freezing all night.
Sunday: Scattered light freezing rain or freezing drizzle with possibly some sleet lingering into early afternoon and then remaining cloudy. Highs in the low 30's.
Monday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of a light wintry mix with highs in the low 30's.
Monday night into Tuesday: It's a very complex scenario and there have been changes to the forecast. It's possible that there is a break in the precipitation from Monday night into early Tuesday morning. It now looks like less snow accumulation with more in the way of sleet and freezing rain and then possibly rain for Tuesday. There may still be 1 to 2 inches of snow and sleet, but it's a fluid situation now, so I will be updating the forecast.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 30's.
Thursday: 40% chance of snow developing in the morning with the potential for light accumulations before changing to sleet/freezing rain and then rain. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
- 1st and 2nd images: Projections for snow and ice (freezing rain), respectively, through 7 PM Sunday from the National Weather Service
- 3rd to 5th images: Maps from the NAM for 10 PM Saturday, 6 AM Sunday, and 11 AM Sunday. Orange is sleet, and pink is freezing rain (ice).
- 6th to 10th images: Maps from the Euro for 7 AM Monday, 7 PM Monday, 1 PM Tuesday, 7 PM Thursday, and 1 PM Friday
- 11th image: NWS model blend snow map from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday
- 12th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 13th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 14th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend