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  • My Personal Weatherman™

Concerning Developments in the Tropics

- See previous post from this morning for the complete update, including Long Island weather.

- Firstly, Invest 97L (the one that is south of Jamaica) is becoming better organized; the NHC has increased the probability of tropical development to 90%. A Tropical Depression is expected to form today. The expected path is over the Yucatan and then towards the western Gulf of Mexico.

- It will now be a race to see which system becomes Laura and which one becomes Marco.

- Regarding Tropical Depression Thirteen, while the National Hurricane Center is officially only forecasting it to strengthen to 70 mph in 5 days, the hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) really intensify it and have it make landfall along the southeastern coast of Florida. The 4th and 5th images are from the new run of the HWRF model. The general thinking is that development will be very slow to occur the next few days, but steady to possibly rapid strengthening can't be ruled out when it's in the vicinity of the Bahamas. However, always pay attention to official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. The new GFS run also strengthens it into a hurricane and brings it towards extreme southern Florida and then up into the Panhandle.

- I will continue to update, but here is some more information from the National Hurricane Center:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Saba and St. Eustatius

* St. Maarten

* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today.

On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

area by late Friday.

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