Crazy times in the tropics with Fiona a Cat 4, Gaston, and Invest 98L (the future hurricane):
- Firstly, Judge hit his 60th homer last night, and the Long Island forecast is below as we have the strong cold front coming through tomorrow with some heavy showers and thunderstorms and then the chilly weather behind it.
- NOAA computers are not proving weather model data since 2 AM due to a connectivity issue affecting the supercomputers, so there's that, LOL.
- Hurricane Fiona is now a Cat 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. It looks like the worst will pass northwest of Bermuda, but of course it doesn't look good for eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland as it will be an extremely powerful storm for that area.
- Gaston is in the middle of the Atlantic and nothing to worry about here.
- Invest 98L should become a Tropical Storm in a few days, but it's still possible that the name Hermine gets stolen first by the system coming off the coast of Africa, so Invest 98L will be either Hermine or Ian. The ensembles show that there is a high chance that it will become a hurricane in the western Caribbean and generally head northward or northwestward, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in that future track (see images below), so just stay tuned! Yes, I saw the Euro run bring it over the Keys, cross southern Florida, and then hit the Carolinas as a strong to major hurricane, and while it's possible, it's best to look at the ensembles as they show the uncertainty.
- Many more updates coming this morning through this evening!
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly sunny with low to moderate humidity with highs in the mid to upper 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NNW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 to 15 mph by late afternoon.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with a chance of widely scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorms with lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow: Showers and thunderstorms with some heavy downpours with highs in mid 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW in the morning and then WNW by late afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night: Becoming mostly clear and turning sharply cooler with lows around 50 degrees. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts over 25 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny, windy, and much cooler with highs only in the low to mid 60's. Wind out of the NW to NNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NW to WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with some showers likely with highs in the mid 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.
- 1st image: NHC map as of 2 AM
- 2nd and 3rd images: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days and GFS ensembles for the next 10 days, respectively
- 4th image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island