My Personal Weatherman™
Damaging wind gust potential late Thursday night:
- Happy Valentine's Day!
- The latest snowfall totals on Long Island from yesterday are mostly in the 3 to 5 inch range, but these aren't the final totals yet in some places. Be careful out these this morning!
- The next storm will bring rain from late Thursday into Friday morning with just over an inch of rain for Long Island, but the bigger issue will be the very strong wind gusts, peaking around or just after midnight Thursday night from a very strong low-level jet. The question will be just how much of these gusts mix down to the surface. The GFS is showing wind gusts possibly up to 65 mph with the Euro showing max gusts mostly of 50 to 55 mph, and the Euro ensemble mean is 55 mph. The strongest gusts will be right along the south shore and east end, as well as at elevation. The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook: "Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible late Thursday into early Friday as a strong frontal system tracks through the area." The following is from the NWS forecaster discussion: "Per the latest data, the system approaches Thu, peaks Thu night, with the associated cold front clearing the area early Fri. A powerful low-level jet looks to produce a significant wind threat for the area. The GFS has 90kt at h925 just 15 miles south of Fire Island at 6Z Fri. Coastal CT and LI will have the highest wind risk, but anywhere in the cwa (tri-state area) will be capable of reaching at least advisory criteria in this setup."
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly sunny, breezy, and very cold with highs only in the mid to upper 20's. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 25 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear and very cold with lows in the low to mid teens with some upper single digits possible in the Pine Barrens area in Suffolk. Wind out of the NW at 10 to15 mph.
Tomorrow: Sunny with highs in the low 30's. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night: Clear and cold with lows in the low 20's. Wind becoming nearly calm.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing high clouds late in the day with highs in the mid 40's. Wind mostly out of the S at 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and very mild with a chance of scattered showers in the afternoon and windy with highs in the mid to upper 50's. Wind out of the SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Rainy and windy overnight with the potential for strong wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
Friday: Rain ending by around mid-morning (possibly late morning out east) and then becoming partly cloudy, and it will be breezy. Temperatures in the 50's early in the morning and then falling to the low to mid 40's by late afternoon. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 25 mph.
Saturday: Sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs around 40 degrees.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Projected wind gusts in knots (multiply by 1.15 to convert to mph) at 1 AM Friday from the GFS
- 3rd image: Map from the GFS for 1 AM Friday
- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend