Decreased worry in the tropics and an unexpected heat wave for the northeast:
- There isn't really too much to worry about in the tropics right now. Invest 95L still has a 40% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Euro ensembles aren't bullish at all on its development.
The following is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area:
- The biggest change in the last day or so is that the global models have trended stronger with the building upper high along the eastern seaboard through early next week.
- There remains high confidence of a hot, humid airmass building in from Sunday through early next week. This has the markings of a heat wave, defined as 3 consecutive days of 90 or higher. Highs will get up into the upper 80s/lower 90s by Sunday from NYC and points north and west, with the lower to mid 80s closer to the coast. The warmest days with potential record heat will be Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the interior and metro NJ. Much of the area during this time will have heat indices of 95 or higher with dew points close to 70, so heat advisories are seeming likely at this time.
- Due to the warming aloft, most if not all isolated to scattered convection will be diurnally driven, and mainly north and west of NYC due to differential heating and thermal trough development. The most active period could be Wed into Thu as the ridge breaks down and a upper trough/closed low and surface frontal system approach from the west.
- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center
- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 3rd image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend
- 4th and 5th images: Projected highs for Monday and Tuesday from the NWS