Early look at the Valentine's weekend storm from the ICON and GFS as GFS already shifted east:
It's very early and the models will still be jumping around, but I just wanted to show the general idea of a storm for Saturday night into Sunday. The 1st image is the ICON for 1 AM Sunday, and the 2nd image is the GFS at 1 PM Sunday. It's important to note that the previous GFS run had the rain/snow line farther west.
You can also see the extreme cold coming down into the Upper Midwest from Arctic high pressure, with the GFS showing wind chill temperatures of -40 to -60 degrees early Sunday morning (see 3rd image).
Also, here is a new Special Weather Statement for Long Island by the NWS, issued at 11:12 AM: Patchy freezing rain will be possible across the area the next couple of hours with temperatures around the freezing mark. Additionally, even for locations slightly above freezing, many of the road surfaces, especially secondary, are likely below freezing due to the recent cold and snowfall.