Elsa has formed, but with major tracks differences! The Long Island forecast with downpours:
Tropical Storm Elsa has officially formed, and it's currently forecast to max out at 65 mph, but a minimal hurricane still can't be ruled out. It's moving quite fast though, which may inhibit it from strengthening as much as it could. There are major track differences between the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles as you can see below. The Euro ensembles generally curve it northward across Hispaniola and bring it mostly east of Florida, whereas the GFS ensembles generally bring it into the Gulf of Mexico.
The details for Long Island are in the forecast below, but there will be some heavy downpours later this afternoon and evening! Generally, 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. The 4th of July looks good overall, but a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Humid with increasing clouds with a chance of some scattered showers and then an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and flash flooding in the late afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms in the evening with heavy downpours possible and then rain continuing overnight. Lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cooler with occasional showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the W to WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and even cooler with a 40% chance of some scattered showers. Highs in the low 70's. Wind mostly out of the NNE at around 10 mph.
4th of July (Sunday): Partly to mostly sunny with only a 20% chance of a couple of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the NNW in the morning and then SW by late afternoon at 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Light wind in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and more humid with highs in the mid to upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end.
- 1st image: Tropical Storm Elsa
- 2nd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 3rd and 4th images: GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles, respectively
- 5th image: 06Z track guidance
- 6th and 7th images: Future radar from the HRRR model for 3 PM and 8 PM, respectively
- 8th image: Projected rainfall through 2 AM Sunday from the WPC
- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend