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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

***Elsa tracks shifts left; Eastern Long Island and southeastern New England in play!***

- Elsa is back down to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and it's moving north at 14 mph. The track guidance has shifted left and the National Hurricane Center has adjusted the track closer to eastern Long Island. However, the Euro has a track right across central Long Island with very strong wind gusts for Suffolk, but it is still overdoing it. The National Weather Service covering Long Island is not bullish at all on the wind gusts, but we will have to see if they change this later today. Stay tuned for many more updates!

- Heat Advisory continues today for Nassau and western Suffolk, and the thunderstorms for later this afternoon and evening will be more scattered for Long Island than they were yesterday.


**A Heat Advisory is in effect for Nassau and western Suffolk for today for heat index temperatures as high as 100 degrees**

Today: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with a 30% chance of a thunderstorm from late afternoon into the evening. Highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end and some low 90's are possible in northwestern Nassau. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: A 40% chance of scattered evening showers and thunderstorms and then partly cloudy and humid with lows in the low 70's. Wind out of the S at 5 to 10 mph, but any thunderstorm could contain gusty winds.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and humid with increasing clouds and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south sore and east end. Wind out of the SSE to S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Humid with showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible at times with gusty winds, especially in eastern Suffolk with highs around 80 degrees. Wind gusts up to 30 mph in Nassau and 50 mph possible in eastern Suffolk, depending on the exact track of Elsa. Stay tuned for the latest updates.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and moderately humid with only a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower with highs in the low 80's. Light and variable wind.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and moderately humid with a 30% chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening with highs around 80 degrees. Light and variable wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 30% chance of some showers. Highs in the low 80's.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and humid with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the low to mid 80's.

- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 2nd image: Map from the Euro for 9 AM Friday

- 3rd image: Euro ensembles

- 4th image: Max gusts from the NWS

- 5th image: 06Z track guidance from various models

- 6th and 7th images: Arrival time of winds and rainfall amounts expected

- 8th image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

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