My Personal Weatherman™
Eta just made landfall - update on Theta, future Iota, snow, and the Long Island forecast:
Tropical Storm Eta has made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida at 4 am EST Thursday. Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph (85 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 996 mb (29.42"). It will continue to move across northern Florida this morning and then out into the Atlantic. There has been plenty of heavy rain and storm surge flooding along the west coast of Florida.
Tropical Storm Theta continues to move eastward in the eastern Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
Invest 98L will likely become Tropical Storm Iota this weekend and then Hurricane Iota by late this weekend or early next week. It has a chance to become a major hurricane, as shown by the HWRF and HMON hurricane models. It will likely head towards Central America, in the same general area that Hurricane Eta made landfall with catastrophic flooding.
Some of the Euro ensemble members are showing some snow for the northeast before Thanksgiving. There is a good chance of snow for the higher elevations of northern and western New England and Lake Effect snow in western NY. I have included the projected snowfall map from the Euro ensemble mean.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Thursday): Periods of light to moderate rain this morning, tapering off to scattered showers this afternoon. Temperatures dropping from the low 60's early this morning to the low 50's by later afternoon. The wind out of the north at 10 to 20 mph. The dew points will also be dropping rapidly from the low 60's early this morning to the mid 40's by Noon.
Tomorrow (Friday): Cloudy and cool with more showers at times, mostly in the morning into early afternoon. Some breaks of sun are possible in the mid-afternoon. Highs in the mid 50's.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 50's.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon with showers developing in the evening. Highs in the upper 50's.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs only in the upper 40's.
- 1st image: NHC map for Eta
- 2nd image: Maximum projected wind gusts through 7 PM Saturday from the National Weather Service
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 4th image: HWRF model showing powerful Hurricane Iota early next week
- 5th image: Projected precipitation for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center
- 6th image: Projected snowfall for the next 15 days from the Euro ensemble mean
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend