Friday the 13th update on extreme heat, Fred, future Grace, thunderstorms, crazy GFS run, and L.I.:
- Welcome to Friday the 13th, and there is some crazy weather to discuss.
- Another day of extreme heat and humidity for the northeast. For Long Island, the heat index will get up to 100 to 105 degrees.
- Regarding tomorrow for Long Island, there is a chance of scattered heavy showers or thunderstorms (the 7th image shows the radar for 3 PM from the HRRR model), but the coverage looks fairly minimal and a good portion of the day should be dry. It will also still be hot and humid with highs in the upper 80's to possibly 90 degrees with a heat index in the mid 90's. Regarding the uncertainty, this is from the National Weather Service a little while ago: "The cold front has more of a pronounced impact on the weather for Saturday with more cloud cover and the chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the day but uncertainties remain as to the exact timing of the front, coverage of showers, the development of convection, and the extent of cloud cover early in the day."
- Yes, I saw the GFS run from overnight showing Grace hitting North Carolina as a major hurricane! Don't worry though; it's best to look at the ensembles at this stage.
- Fred is still a disorganized Tropical Depression, but it's still expected to become a Tropical Storm and eventually max out with around 50 mph sustained winds. Plenty of rain for Florida though as you can see in the map below (5th image).
- Invest 95L (future Grace) is still being given a 70% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. The models and ensembles still show a lot of uncertainty though in both track and strength, so everything is still on the table, and things should start to come into focus this weekend.
- There are also indications that Henri and Ida could also form within the next 10 to 14 days.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
**There is a Heat Advisory in effect for all of Long Island until 8 PM for heat index temperatures up to 105 degrees for Nassau and northwestern Suffolk and 100 degrees for the rest of Suffolk**
Today: Mostly sunny, very hot, and humid with highs mostly in the low to mid 90's with a heat index up to 105 degrees, but slightly cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind mostly out of the WSW at around 10 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy and humid with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm with lows in the low to mid 70's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, hot, and humid with a chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm with the best chance in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees. Wind mostly out of the W to WNW at around 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm, otherwise partly cloudy and becoming less humid. Lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the N at around 10 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, cooler, and much less humid with highs mostly close to 80 degrees. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs around 80 degrees. Wind of 5 to 10 mph out of the NE in the morning and SE in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs close to 80 degrees. Wind out of the ENE to ESE at 5 to 10 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Official map for Fred
- 3rd image: 06Z model tracks for Invest 95L (future Grace)
- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 5th image: Projected rainfall for Florida through 2 AM Wednesday from the WPC
- 6th image: Future radar for 3 PM tomorrow from the HRRR model
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend