Future Grace now up to 50%. GFS ensembles in 2nd image; I will post Euro ensembles later:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.