GFS finally comes around and now shows the Sunday coastal storm as well:
- The Long Island forecast is below, but tomorrow will be a beautiful day, and then the cold front comes through Wednesday afternoon/evening with showers and possibly a thunderstorm (2nd image is for 6 PM Wednesday) as it will become windy Wednesday night. Chilly on Thursday with gusts up to 40 mph possible.
- The Euro, GFS, and Canadian now all show a coastal storm for Sunday (see 4th to 6th images). The exact timing, track, and intensity are still uncertain, but as of now, I would say 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible on Long Island between around midnight Saturday night and 6 PM on Sunday with wind gusts up to 40 mph, possibly higher right along the shore.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning and then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 30% chance of a shower after 3 PM with the best chance being in Nassau. Highs in the low to mid 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Nearly calm winds in the morning and then mostly out of the SSW in the afternoon at around 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a chance of a shower, and then becoming mostly clear by midnight. Lows mostly in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the S to SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Breezy in the afternoon with wind gusts up to 20 mph from the WSW to SSW.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds in the morning with a slight chance of a shower by late morning, and then some showers likely with possibly a thunderstorm between around 2 PM and 8 PM. Highs in the low 60's. Becoming breezy in the afternoon and evening with gusts up to 25 mph from the SSW.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, windy, and much cooler with highs only in the low 50's. Wind gusts up to 35 mph from the WNW.
Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs around 60 degrees but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind gusts up to 25 mph from the W to WNW.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds late in the day with highs in the low 60's.
Sunday: Rainy and breezy with highs in the upper 50's.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Map from the Euro for 6 PM Wednesday
- 3rd image: Projected storm locations and strengths at 8 AM Sunday from the Euro ensemble members
- 4th to 6th images: Maps from the GFS, Canadian, and Euro, respectively, at 2 PM Sunday
- 7th image: Projected precipitation through 8 PM Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend