My Personal Weatherman™
Good discussion from NWS NY and latest snow, precipitation, and wind maps for the northeast:
The 4th image is the latest HRRR future radar for 10 AM tomorrow.
The following discussion is from NWS NY covering Long Island, NYC, and the Tri-State areas:
6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation continues Tuesday as the primary low pivots into New England. Lower level thickness support snow, or a rain snow mix, even to the coast for Tuesday morning into the afternoon. However, accumulating snow will be difficult to achieve during the daylight hours given the higher sun angle this time of year. But, if the snow comes down heavy enough, accumulation is likely even along the coast. Will have to watch for the development of a deformation band as this will likely be associated with the heaviest snow. The SPC HREF shows a band with some moderate snow moving south from the Lower Hudson Valley and into southern New York by early afternoon and is reflected in a few other mesoscale models. Again, boundary layer temperatures may lead to snow and/or rain and uncertainty in the snowfall forecast. The low starts to pull away Tuesday night, but light precipitation may continue for at least the first half of Tuesday night, leading to better chances for accumulations as the sun sets before ending. Storm total snowfall of 6-12 inches is possible for Lower Hudson Valley and portions of northeast New Jersey. 3 to 6 inches are possible for inland southwest Connecticut and 2 to 4 inches for inland southeast Connecticut where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Up to an inch is possible across New York City and northern Nassau, while the rest of Long Island and much of coastal Connecticut will see less than an inch, though up to 2 inches is possible as a reasonable high end for these locales. Additionally, Wind Advisories have been issued for coastal Connecticut and Suffolk County on Long Island (mentioned in the Winter Weather Advisories for inland southern Connecticut) as the storm intensifies Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. A strong jet develops at around 850 mb of 50+ kt. Not all of this will mix down, but a portion of this should, and is reflected in quite a few models. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected.