Growing Concern For Laura - Quick Update on Marco, Laura, Potential Nana, and Long Island
While Tropical Storm Marco has weakened to 50 mph maximum sustained winds, it's still bringing flooding issues from torrential rain and storm surge along the central and eastern Gulf coast.
The main concern though is from Tropical Storm Laura as it's expected to become a hurricane tomorrow with the potential to make landfall in Texas or Louisiana as a Cat 3 or higher. The models such as Euro, UKMET, GFS, HWRF, and HMON are all on board. While the National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to be a Cat 2, residents should prepare as if a Cat 4 is coming. I will be continuing to update on this. The brand-new Euro ensembles show an increasing threat for the Texas coast (see 6th image).
However, the talk next week will likely be about the next storm, Nana (see 5th image).
Here is the forecast for Long Island from my post earlier this morning:
- Today: Partly cloudy, very warm, and humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. There is a 30% chance of some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.
- Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and humid with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's. There is a chance of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into early evening with the potential for strong wind gusts and a slight chance of hail. Coverage of these storms will not be widespread though.
- Wednesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and much less humid with highs mostly around 80 degrees. It will also be breezy with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.
- Thursday: Partly cloudy and becoming warmer and more humid by late afternoon and evening with a 50% chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the low to mid 80's.
- Friday and Saturday: It will be warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening. The exact timing will depend on the track of the remnants of Laura and how it interacts with a frontal system coming down from Canada.
- Sunday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid with highs only in the upper 70's.
- 1st image: Projection for Laura at 2 PM Wednesday from the HWRF model.
- 2nd image: Projection for Laura at 8 AM Thursday from the HMON model.
- 3rd image: GFS ensembles for Laura.
- 4th image: National Hurricane Center forecast map for Laura.
- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.
- 6th image: New 06Z Euro ensembles for the next 84 hours.