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Happy Flag Day! An update on the tropics, thunderstorms, and the Long Island Forecast:

- Happy Flag Day! It commemorates the adoption of the flag of the United States on June 14, 1777, by resolution of the Second Continental Congress.

- The details for Long Island are in the forecast below, but Wednesday to Friday looks great!

- Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is still being given a 50% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days by the National Hurricane Center. It will likely become a weak tropical storm in terms of wind, but it will bring a lot of rain to Louisiana this weekend as the Euro is still showing the potential for over 15 inches of rain.

- Regarding Invest 93L off the coast of the Carolinas, it has a 30% chance of tropical development within the next couple of days, and this is from the National Hurricane Center: "A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 100 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated near the center this morning. Furthermore, recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, although the system is still interacting with a frontal boundary. The low is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days while passing over or near the warm Gulf Stream today and Tuesday, which could allow for some tropical development to occur while the system moves away from the United States. The low should move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development."

- Regarding the potential for severe weather, there is a chance of thunderstorms on Long Island later today and tonight, as well as a slight chance tomorrow afternoon. However, the more severe storms will be to the southwest of Long Island (see image below).


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Cloudy and humid with showers at times and a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon with highs in the low 70's. Wind out of the S at around 10 mph.

Tonight: Humid with periods of showers and thunderstorms with lows in the low to mid 60's. Wind out of the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Cloudy early in the morning with a chance of showers and then becoming partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees. Wind out of the WNW in the afternoon at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with low humidity in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70's. Wind out of the NW at around 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the upper 70's. wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with highs around 80 degrees. Wind out of the SSW in the afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, warmer, and more humid with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 80's.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 80's.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 4th image: Severe weather potential for today into early tomorrow morning from the Storm Prediction Center

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend







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