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***Happy Independence Day!!*** The latest on Elsa and the Long Island forecast:

- Happy 4th of July!! I hope you all have a great time!!

- Tropical Storm Elsa has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a rather high minimum central pressure of 1006 mb and is moving much more slowly than previously as its moving WNW at 14 mph. If it stays just north of Jamaica some slight strengthening would be likely today; however, it will weaken when it crosses over Cuba. Some slight re-strengthening would likely occur after it emerges in the eastern Gulf, but this will be limited due to moderate wind shear.

- See the images below for more info on the track of Elsa and some of the impacts, and it's nothing to worry about for Long Island as it should recurve and pass well southeast of us.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today (4th of July): Partly sunny with a 20% chance of a passing shower after 2 PM. Highs mostly in the low 70's. Light and variable wind at around 5 mph.

Tonight (4th of July night): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a passing shower up until around 9 PM. Lows in the low to mid 60's. Wind out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs mostly in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Light wind in the morning and then out of the SE to S at around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Sunny, hot, and humid with highs mostly 85 to 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW to SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, hot, and humid with a 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Highs mostly 85 to 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms at times with highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler for the south sore and east end. Wind out of the ESE to SE at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and humid with some showers at times with highs in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and humid with a slight chance of a shower with highs mostly in the low 80's.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Official forecast map for Elsa from the NHC

- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts for Florida through 8 PM Tuesday from the NWS

- 4th image: Projected tracks from various models

- 5th and 6th images: Projected rainfall and timing of the wind from Elsa

- 7th image: Projected highs for today from the NWS

- 8th and 9th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles for Elsa

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend












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