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Hot on Sunday, chance for Ana now 80%, and the Long Island forecast with some comments:

- It will be much cooler today and tomorrow on Long Island, especially by late afternoon as the sea breeze drops temperatures into the low 60's along the south shore; see the last image for projected 5 PM temperatures for today from the HRRR model.

- Sunday looks hot with a chance for a thunderstorm in the late afternoon or early evening as temps for parts of Long Island could make it into the upper 80's with low 90's for northeast NJ. The Euro ensemble mean for Farmingdale on Long Island is 88 degrees!

- It will be much cooler again on Monday and Tuesday before the very warm weather returns on Wednesday with highs in the 80's and a chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon or early evening.

- Outside of potential thunderstorms, there won't be much rain at all through the end of next week (see 5th image, which shows the projected rainfall for the next 10 days from the Euro)


Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system has developed within a broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today: Partly cloudy and cooler with highs mostly around 70 to 72 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. By late afternoon it will be even cooler because of the sea breeze with temperatures in the low 60's for southeastern Suffolk. Wind out of the ESE in the morning at 5 mph or less and then S to SSE in the afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows mostly in the mid 50's in Nassau and low 50's in Suffolk. Wind mostly out of the S and decreasing to 5 mph or less after midnight.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the low 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end, and the sea breeze will cause the temperatures to drop in the mid to late afternoon. Wind mostly out of the SSW at around 5 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph out of the S in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or two, mostly in the afternoon/evening, with highs mostly in the mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the WSW to SSW at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and very warm to hot with a chance of a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's. Wind out of the WNW to NW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with highs in the low 70's.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs around 70 degrees.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with highs in the low 80's and a chance of a thunderstorm by late afternoon or early evening.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

- 4th image: Projected highs for today from the NWS

- 5th image: Projected rainfall for the next 10 days from the Euro

- 6th image: Projected 5 PM temperatures for today from the HRRR model








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