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HRRR, Euro, and NAM all have wind gusts over 50 mph for Montauk and NWS goes with 33 mph:

We have seen this before with the NWS being too low on the wind potential, and yes the models are probably a little too high as it depends how much will mix down to the surface from the low-level jet, but why not go with a general 35 to 45 mph?

HRRR max gusts are shown in the 1st image and the NWS max gusts are shown in the 2nd image.

The strongest gusts will be just ahead of the front, from around 10 PM tomorrow to 4 AM Friday from west to east.

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