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Humid with an update on the thunderstorms/downpours, the tropics, and the Long Island forecast:

- Dew points will be in the upper 60's to low 70's for Long Island, so it will be a humid day. The thunderstorms for this afternoon into early evening will mainly be to the north and west of Long Island, and they will be slow-moving and contain very heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. The storms will weaken significantly this evening as they make it to Long Island, but western Long Island could still see heavy downpours. The models are showing the starting time as mostly between 6:30 PM and 8 PM in Nassau and 8 PM to 9:30 PM from west to east in Suffolk, but an earlier start time is possible.

- The thunderstorms for tomorrow look more scattered, but they can still contain very heavy downpours, and the backdoor cold front will move from north to south in the evening, so Thursday will be cooler and less humid. Even cooler on Friday with a chance of showers.

- The National Hurricane Center is giving the area in the southern Caribbean a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, so it bears watching, but there is no imminent threat to the United States. Overall, the Euro and GFS ensembles (6th and 7th images) are not especially bullish, but it seems there is a slight chance of perhaps a tropical storm eventually making it northward towards the western Gulf coast.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly cloudy and humid with some hazy sunshine with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening with the potential for heavy downpours. Highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end where temperatures will be in the 70's. Wind out of the S to SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely between 7 PM and midnight. The thunderstorms will weaken significantly by the time they get to western Suffolk. Lows mostly in the upper 60's. Wind out of the SW at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and humid with some hazy sunshine with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening with some heavy downpours possible with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, cooler, and less humid with a slight chance of a shower with highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the E to NE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Cloudy and cooler with a 60% chance of showers with highs in the upper 60's. Wind mostly out of the ENE at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the low 70's. Wind out of the ENE to NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower with highs in the low to mid 70's.

Monday: Partly cloudy with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower highs in the mid 70's.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected temperatures at 1 PM from the HRRR model

- 3rd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 4th and 5th images: Simulated radar from the HRRR model for 7 PM and 9 PM, respectively

- 6th and 7th images: Storm tracks in the tropics for the next 10 days from the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend












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