• My Personal Weatherman™

Hurricane Eta and the models show potential trouble, wind/snow in the northeast, and Long Island:

Eta is now officially a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It's expected to undergo steady to rapid intensification today, and it could become a Cat 3 before landfall in Nicaragua tomorrow. It's even possible that it makes it to a Cat 4. A storm surge of at least 10 to 15 feet is expected, which would be raised if it makes it to a strong Cat 3 or higher. The slow movement when it makes landfall will yield rainfall totals that could approach 35 inches.

The models continue to show a tropical system eventually coming northward in the Caribbean. I'm glad the National Hurricane Center mentions the following because it's not entirely clear: "Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area."

The Euro is showing a major hurricane (930 mb, likely a Cat 4) in the Caribbean at day 10. It's better to look at the ensembles at that range though, and I have posted them below.

You already know about the strong winds in the northeast today and the Lake Effect snow, but I have included the snow and wind maps below.

The warming trend really starts on Wednesday, and it looks like a great stretch of weather through the weekend with temperatures approaching 70 degrees in some areas.

Long Island forecast:

**Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM today (Monday) for wind gusts as high as 45 to 50 mph from the WNW to NW**

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower and then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Very windy and cold with highs only in the mid 40's. Wind gusts up to 50 mph from the WNW to NW. The strongest winds should be from mid-morning to mid-afternoon.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Another cold front will come through in the morning, so there will be more clouds in the morning with a slight chance of a shower, and then partly cloudy in the afternoon with gusts over 25 mph in the morning into early afternoon and then slowly diminishing in the evening. Highs in the upper 40's to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50's.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60's.

Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 60's. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's.

- 1st image: Official forecast map for Hurricane Eta

- 2nd image: IR satellite view of Eta

- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts from the NWS

- 4th and 5th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively, each for the next 11 days

- 6th image: Projected snowfall through 1 PM Tuesday from the NWS

- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

7 views0 comments