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Hurricane Sam rapidly intensifying and a tricky forecast for Long Island with east-west differences:

- Hurricane Sam is rapidly intensifying and is now projected to become a major hurricane tomorrow and possibly a Cat 4 by tomorrow night or Sunday morning with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. It's currently a small hurricane, but it will eventually grow in size when eyewall replacement cycles occur as it gains latitude. While there is very good agreement on the track, it doesn't mean it's set in stone beyond 5 or 6 days as changes can still occur.

- The Long Island forecast is below, but the rain will very slowly be shifting east this morning, and it will be noticeably cooler and less humid. The sun may come out for western Long Island this afternoon, but clouds and some showers will linger to the east as the front becomes nearly stationary. The other complication is for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as a wave of low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal boundary, so clouds will be on the increase in Suffolk and some showers may move in during the afternoon and spread slowly westward through the evening and into the night. I will update on this later this morning and post the future radar.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Large difference from west to east with showers in the morning with downpours shifting east and becoming less humid with the sun possibly coming out for western Nassau in the afternoon, but clouds and scattered showers may linger into the afternoon in eastern Suffolk. Highs mostly in the upper 60's. Wind mostly out of the W to WNW at around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear to the west with more clouds to the east and cool with lows in the mid to upper 50's. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny for Nassau and western Suffolk with low humidity, but clouds will increase to the east with a chance of scattered showers in the afternoon and into the night as it spreads slowly westward into Nassau. Highs in the low to mid 70's. Light and variable wind, mostly at around 5 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs in the low to mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the WNW at around 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs in the low to mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the W at around 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the WSW at 5 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 2nd image: Official forecast map for Hurricane Sam from the NHC

- 3rd image: Current radar as of 4:57 AM

- 4th image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend







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