Hurricane Watch in effect for Texas - update on Beta, Teddy, and Long Island weather:
Tropical Storm Beta:
Beta currently has 60 mph maximum sustained winds, and the center has re-formed more to the northeast, so the initial track is farther north. It will be very slow moving near the Texas coast from Monday to Wednesday, and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Current projected rainfall totals are in the 10 to 15 inch range for the Texas coast. The NHC is projecting 80 mph peak intensity, but intensity forecasts are fairly difficult, so it could be a little higher or lower than this. The projected peak storm surge is currently 2 to 4 feet, but that could be increased. The following is from the NHC:
1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 26.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
There has been no real change in the forecast for Teddy as it will pass just east of Bermuda (Tropical Storm Watch is in effect), and then bend leftward towards Nova Scotia while transitioning from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. A rapid decrease in Teddy's max winds is expected after it becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone's wind field could actually expand further.
Long Island forecast:
Today: Sunny and breezy with very low humidity with highs mostly in the low to mid 60's.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and breezy with very low humidity with highs only in the low 60's.
Monday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid 60's.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy with low humidity with highs mostly around 70 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70's.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70's.
Friday: Partly cloudy with highs mostly in the low 70's.
.FIRE WEATHER... Northerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph this morning into early this afternoon, combined with low relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent will allow for the enhanced spread of any fire. A special weather statement remains in effect through early this evening. Sunday winds will be north to northeast with gusts up to 20 mph, and afternoon relative humidity 27 percent to 32 percent.
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes expected for the ocean beachfront Sunday into Monday... Numerous tidal cycles of minor coastal flooding expected for the south shore bays of W LI, Lower NY/NJ harbor, SW CT, and S Westchester through Sunday, and possibly through early next week. Astronomical tides continue to run high associated with a recent new moon, with a persistent NNE flow through Monday and tidal piling allowing for 1/2 to 1 1/2 ft of surge. Primary concern is the combination of elevated water levels and incoming energetic swells from Teddy building to our shores tonight into Monday. This is expected to develop high surf of 8-12 ft Sunday into Monday, which combined with elevated water levels during the times of high tide will likely result in significant and widespread erosion and damage to dune structures. In addition, scattered overwashes are likely, resulting in minor to moderate flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective dunes. This is depicted in the NOAA/USGS Coastal Change Forecast Viewer, which is showing potential for an erosion and overwash event close to what was seen the October 10th 2019 Nor'easter and possibly during Hurricane Jose swell event. In terms of the coastal flood threat, the widespread minor coastal flooding can be expected across the South Shore Bays of Nassau and Queens as well as lower HY/NJ Harbor and SW CT as well as S Westchester. Isolated minor coastal flooding is expected for shorelines of Northern Long Island this afternoon. A similar threat likely for Sunday morning high tides. Brief and localized minor flooding likely for the night time high tides tonight and Sun Night. A similar coastal flood threat is likely to at least continue into the Monday and Tuesday daytime high tidal cycles as Hurricane Teddy makes it closest approach, with potential for moderate coastal flood impacts along vulnerable Great South Bay and areas as energetic swells from Teddy restrict tidal drainage.