My Personal Weatherman™
Hurricane Watch issued with up to 20 inches of rain, 15-day ensembles, and the east coast system:
- While Tropical Storm Nicholas is still forecast to stay below hurricane-strength, NHC notes that if it tracks slightly farther east and stays over water longer, it could become a hurricane. So, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent.
- Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
- Maximum projected storm surge is 3 to 5 feet (see 3rd image).
- Maximum projected wind gusts for Texas through 8 PM Tuesday is shown in the 4th image.
- The Euro ensembles for the next 15 days are shown in the 5th image, and some of them bring potential future Hurricane Odette a little too close to the east close for comfort, but it's VERY early, so for now we just watch it.
- Regarding the potential system along the east coast later this week into this coming weekend, it's nothing really to worry about, and the following is from NWS NY covering Long Island and the tri-state area: For Friday and Saturday, we continue to monitor the potential for low pressure development off the southeast coast, which may approach the region. Both the 12Z deterministic GFS and EU move this weak low north along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and curve it south of the 40/70 benchmark back to the east away from land as it gets picked up by a shortwave. It should also be noted that many members of both the GEFS and ECENS depict a weak system well to the south of the area. In addition, some model guidance is also showing both an interaction with the remnants of Nicholas as well as the aforementioned frontal system to the north, so there are many details to be ironed out over the next few days. As mentioned yesterday, this far out it is much too early to determine what, if any, impacts there may be to the region next weekend from this system.