• My Personal Weatherman™

Hurricane Zeta now projected to be 100 mph storm and update on the northeast rain/snowstorm:

Hurricane Zeta:

Zeta is intensifying and now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with a minimum central pressure of 982 mb. It will make landfall late this afternoon or early this evening probably as a Cat 2 with maximum sustained winds of close to 100 mph. The maximum projected storm surge is now up to 6 to 9 feet and rainfall totals will generally be 2 to 5 inches.

KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 25.1N 91.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Northeast storm:

There are no major changes with the storm, which is actually 2 storms, the remnants of Zeta and then then trailing upper level low. Snow maps are posted below as well as the precipitation map. For Long Island, generally around 2 to 2.75 inches of rain from around 7 AM tomorrow to 4 PM Friday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts along the south shore and east end. There will also be minor to locally moderate coastal flooding.

Long Island forecast:

Today (Wednesday): Some light showers in the early to mid morning, and then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs around 59 to 62 degrees.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Rain developing between around 6 AM to 9 AM from southwest to northeast on Long Island with periods of moderate to heavy rain at times. Increasingly windy at night with the wind out of the NE with gusts of  25 to 35 mph. Temperatures slowly dropping from the low to mid 50's in the morning to the upper 40's by late afternoon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The high tide cycle on Friday is of concern for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding as astronomical high tide levels rise in association with the full moon on Halloween, and as strong NE winds bring in surge. An early look per latest guidance suggests total tide departures of at least 1-1/2 to 2 ft and locally 2-1/2 ft, with a worst case about 1/2 foot higher than that.

Friday: Rain and wind in the morning ending as showers around mid afternoon from west to east with temperatures dropping from the mid 40's in the morning to the low 40's by late afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph out of the NNE in the morning and shifting to N and decreasing by late afternoon. Total rainfall of 2 to 2.75 inches from Thursday morning to Friday late afternoon. Clearing and cold at night with lows in the upper 20's to low 30's by Halloween morning.

Halloween: Mostly sunny and chilly with highs in the upper 40's.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50's. Some showers are possibly by evening.

Monday: Mostly sunny, windy, and chilly with highs only around 50 degrees.

- 1st image: Official forecast map from the NHC for Hurricane Zeta

- 2nd image: Hurricane Zeta

- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts from the National Weather Service

- 4th image: Maximum projected storm surge

- 5th and 6th images: Projected snowfall from the Euro (through 8 AM Sat) and the National Weather Service (through 8 Pm Friday), respectively

- 7th and 8th images: Projected precipitation through 2 AM Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 9th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service

10 views0 comments