Ian is now a hurricane and will rapidly intensify into a Cat 3 by tonight and peak at 140 mph Cat 4!

The NHC shifted the track eastward, as I was predicting last night. Ian has just been upgraded to a hurricane and will continue to intensify and reach an expected peak as a 140 mph Cat 4 by late tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning! I have included all of the maps below, including rain, wind, and storm surge. Very slow movement as it gets farther north near or just offshore the coast will lead to a long duration event and rain, wind, and coastal/flash flooding with maximum rainfall amounts up to 15 to 20 inches being possible (see maps below). The wind will mostly be a problem right along the coast and just inland (see Euro and NWS wind maps below). Wind shear and drier air will cause it to weaken as it gets near and farther north along the west coast of Florida, but it will still cause major problems.

See the last image for the Long Island forecast as we have a chance of a passing shower later today into early evening and then a dry week. The rain from the eventual remnants of Ian may make it to us by Sunday and into Monday, but high pressure to the north may keep it suppressed just south of us for a while.